Indian cotton is the most competitive cotton in this season. India is expected to produce 4.20 million bales of cotton during the 2019-2020 crop year. The domestic consumption is 2.20 million bales (They also import cotton) and 1.00 million bales have already been exported while 0.70 million bales are already booked. So, are we going to see the export ban a few months later?
Ending stock of cotton
The total ending stock of cotton is at a comfortable level for the rest of the world except China. But ending stock in China is at a lower level. But China after 2011 has moved towards non-cotton and therefore is not much of a concern. But China is still the number one consumer of cotton and any move by China is a major determinant of the cotton price.
Spec position going towards long from short
The spec position is going towards short to long which is an indication of the market consolidation.
ICE in my opinion despite the geopolitical situation would remain firm, as the supply-demand gap would tighten as we move forward the end of 2019-2020 season.
So, mills must be extremely cautious and set appropriate risk minimization strategies based on their information matrix and risk exposure.
Suggestions for improvement of profitability
Try to exercise appropriate tools to minimize risk through remaining long on volatility.