Only future can tell what the new U.S. president elect Donald Trump will do as head of the state but analysis are not on hold from politics and business experts. What it has been learned during the campaign about Trump’s views on trade has not put many in any comfort zone for many important global players. However many experts, politicians and analysts are seeing another angle for Bangladesh.
Turmp’s trade policies may make American market more restricted. Renegotiating many free trade agreements may change global trade mathematics. Trump would try to reduce the impact of global manufacturer China on US market and at the same time he is going to trash TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) or TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). All these provide a bright ray for countries like Bangladesh. And it seems there would be wider scope of Bangladeshi apparel and other products to enter US if Bangladesh can offer right products at a cheaper price. However not only Bangladesh country like India is looking forward the opportunities with eagle eye view.
Experts fear that what He has promised or said to his voters during election campaign regarding trade policies would amount to the single biggest change to the way America does business with the rest of the world in decades. And trade is one area where the president has freedom to act without the approval of lawmakers in Congress.
According to his campaign website the U.S. would scrap several multilateral agreements, including the 2016 Paris Climate Accord, NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement) and the Nuclear Pact with Iran. Some mutual defense treaties and other trade agreements could soon follow. The U.S. would opt out of any pending free trade agreements like TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) or TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership).
Jon Lieber, U.S. director at the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy company, saying that leaving behind TPP could also prove an advantage to China, said Lieber. “The TPP was really all about China, and the U.S. trying to create a regional trading bloc that would project U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific as a barricade against Chinese influence,” he said. “The partner countries are going to have to look inwardly and also to China, who, as the second biggest economy in the world, is actively trying to promote their influence throughout the region.”
He added that investment opportunities that U.S. companies may have had in the Asian region could now go to Chinese firms.
“A lot of work has also gone into a new trade deal between the US and the European Union. Since 2013 the two sides have been negotiating the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership or TTIP, aimed at removing or reducing trade barriers. That deal has faced opposition in Europe and now, with a US administration that is skeptical over trade deals, looks even less likely to reach fruition” said a BBC report.
An existing deal under threat is the 2011 free trade agreement with South Korea.
“The shredding of NAFTA and other trade accords would result in the disruption of global supply chains that generate billions of dollars in trade between the U.S. and many other countries, especially Mexico. Potential foreign investment in the U.S. from around the world could be diverted. The imposition of heavy tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, would violate WTO rules and could spark a global trade war” said Dr. Howard Stoffer.
“Nafta was the worst trade deal in the history of this country,” Mr Trump said in his June speech at the recycling plant. Trump said that if Mexico and Canada did not play ball in his bid to renegotiate the treaty, then he would “submit under Article 2205 of the NAFTA agreement that America intends to withdraw from the deal.”
Numbers of automakers have their plant in Mexico. If NAFTA goes down then automakers and other beneficiaries that conduct business across the northern and southern borders would certainly take a hit.
Donald Trump has introduced the idea of imposing 45% tariff on Chinese imports if China does not reform its trade relations with the US and 35% on goods shipped from Mexico, in an effort to prevent companies moving jobs south of the border. This is perhaps his most radical idea, because China is an important supplier of many goods to U.S. If the threat becomes a reality it would supply a shock to the US economy.
For example take mobile device into consideration. China supplies three-quarters of the phones imported into the US and it supplies almost all laptop and tablet computers (BBC report).
These are the few understanding from what Mr. Trump has delivered in his election campaign but a lot of them are to motivate voters to vote for him. Because what he said in acceptance speech sounded a lot different.
